Arsenal were stunned by two late Aston Villa goals as they lost 2-0 at home on Sunday to hand the initiative in the Premier League title race to defending champions Manchester City.

Villa substitute Leon Bailey tapped home from close range in the 84th minute before Ollie Watkins’ sublime finish three minutes later sent Gunners fans streaming for the exits.

Arsenal’s defeat, their first in 12 league games, sees them remain second, two points behind City and level on points with third-placed Liverpool with six games left to play.

Following Liverpool’s 1-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace earlier on Sunday, the weekend belonged to City who bolstered their chances of an unprecedented fourth straight league title with a 5-1 demolition of visiting Luton Town on Saturday.

Villa weathered pressure in the first half, with Kai Havertz shooting straight at goalkeeper Emi Martinez before Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka hit the side-netting as an opening goal for the Gunners’ felt like an imminent inevitability.

But Villa went closest when Watkins’ effort bounced off one post and narrowly wide of the other, while Youri Tielemans’s rasping effort hit the crossbar then the post and somehow stayed out as the visitors improved considerably after the break.

Bailey gave the visitors the lead when he turned in Lucas Digne’s dangerous cross before Watkins broke Arsenal hearts with a beautiful chip over keeper David Raya to settle the contest.

“It’s massive to come away to Arsenal when they are playing such good football and to play like that just shows where we are going really, it was a perfect away performance,” Villa’s England striker Watkins told Sky Sports.

The win boosts fourth-placed Villa’s chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League and moves them three points above Tottenham Hotspur, albeit having played a game more.

-Reuters

The super computers and number crunchers still don’t fancy Arsenal’s chances of winning a compelling three-way Premier League title race despite, on current form, the London club being the best team in England.

Twelve months ago Arsenal were gobbled up by a relentless Manchester City in a two-horse race, but this time Mikel Arteta’s side are showing absolutely no sign of flinching and lead Liverpool on goal difference and City by one point.

They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games with the only dropped points coming in a masterful 0-0 draw at champions Manchester City that was concrete proof of how much they improved from last year’s model.

Arsenal have scored 20 times in their last five away league games in which they conceded not a single goal.

They wear the confident look of champions elect but there are caveats, notably a seven-game run in that looks tougher than Liverpool’s and Manchester City’s with matches against Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United.

Premier League data analysts Opta ran the likely scenarios through their computer after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday and come up with a conclusion that will not be comforting for Arsenal fans.

In fact the weekend’s matches, which began with City’s 4-2 win at Crystal Palace and included Arsenal’s superlative 3-0 win away at Brighton and Hove Albion appear to have skewed the title race firmly in favour of Pep Guardiola’s City.

Before the weekend City were 33.6% likely to win a fourth successive title, according to Opta. That has now increased to 40.6%. Arsenal’s title-winning chance is 30.3% with Liverpool slipping from favourites to third at 29.1% — a 15.9% drop from before the last round of fixtures.

A look at the remaining fixtures explains why City are marginally the more likely to prevail in the tightest three-way title duel since City edged out a stumbling Liverpool and Chelsea by two and four points respectively in 2013-14.

Six of City’s last seven games are against Luton Town (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h), Fulham (a) and West Ham United (h) with their biggest test being a trip to Tottenham Hotspur.

Arsenal host fifth-placed Aston Villa on Saturday before Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a) and Everton (h).

Liverpool face Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wolves (h).

While the algorithms still favour City, Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title in 20 years are boosted by a far superior goal difference compared to their two rivals.

In a race that looks like going to the wire, that could be crucial, although Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp knows there will be many more twists and turns to come.

“I knew it would be super tricky until the end. Until yesterday we were top, now it’s Arsenal and — I don’t know when — then it may be somebody else,” he said.

-Reuters

Liverpool failed to return to the top of the table with after a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford as rivals Manchester United did their bit to try and derail the Reds’ quest to send off Jurgen Klopp with an English Premier League title, which would put Liverpool level with United on 20 league crowns.

They are behind Arsenal on goal difference, with both teams locked on 71 points. Champions Manchester City are a further point adrift.

It was an end to end start to the match on April 7 with the home team having a goal by Alejandro Garnacho disallowed after two minutes after the Argentinian strayed just offside.

From then on though, all the action in the first 45 minutes came at the opposite end as United failed to register a shot. The last time they did not record a shot in the first half of a Premier League game was in April 2022, during a 4-0 defeat by the Reds.

The last time that happened at Old Trafford was in October 2015, when they drew 0-0 against City.

Liverpool, meanwhile, had 15 first-half shots, four of them on target as the Red Devils continued their tendency to allow opponents to pepper their goal with shots. Before the game on April 7, the Red Devils had faced 526 shots in the Premier League, more than any other time in the 20 full seasons since Opta began keeping records.

While United have suffered from injury issues all season, which saw them start with three teenagers in a Premier League match against Liverpool for the first time, there was no shortage of experience on the pitch in the likes of Raphael Varane, Casemiro and Harry Maguire.

The Reds opened the scoring on 23 minutes when Darwin Nunez escaped the attentions of Aaron Wan-Bissaka from a corner and headed the ball on to an unmarked Luis Diaz, who finished past Andre Onana.

It was the Uruguayan striker’s 13th assist this term, more than any other Premier League player.

The Reds should have, however, gone into the break with more than a one-goal lead as only Onana kept the Reds in the game with saves from the likes Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Salah.

It was a similar story to the teams’ FA Cup quarter-final clash in March, when United took advantage of the Reds’ profligacy to sneak a 4-3 win.

And so it seemed again at the start of the second half on April 7, when United scored with their first shot of the match.

Bruno Fernandes pounced on a loose pass by Jarell Quansah just inside the Liverpool half in the 50th minute and launched a first-time shot over a stranded Caoimhin Kelleher for his 50th Premier League goal.

Indeed, the Red Devils could take have taken a shock lead minutes with their second shot but a flying Casemiro just failed to get a boot on a cross into the box.

Liverpool’s second-half nightmare continued on 67 minutes when Kobbie Mainoo received a pass into box by Wan-Bissaka with his back to goal and proceeded to swivel and launch a lovely curling shot into the top corner of Kelleher’s goal.

He became the first 18-year-old to score in the Premier League against Liverpool since Cesc Fabregas for Arsenal in May 2005, and became the Red Devils’ youngest scorer against Liverpool in the Premier League.

But as it was in the defeat by Chelsea in midweek, United conceded a needless late penalty after Wan-Bissaka brought Harvey Elliott down in the box.

Salah stepped up and scored from the spot, his sixth goal at Old Trafford, more than any other player in Premier League history.