BY KUNLE SOLAJA.

Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have received a significant lift following the Confederation of African Football’s (CAF) decision to revise the criteria for determining the four best runners-up in the African qualifiers.

But in the end, it may boil down to the use of calculators to determine number of goals and points to be deducted from the runners-up in eight of the nine World Cup qualifying groups.

Only Niger’s position in Group E will remain constant as Eritrea’s withdrawal prompts recalibration of “best runners-up” ranking system.

The change, prompted by Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group E of the qualifiers, has forced CAF and FIFA to adjust the ranking formula to ensure fairness across all nine qualifying groups. Eritrea’s exit left Group E with only five teams instead of six, creating an imbalance in the points system.

In a circular dated March 14, 2025, signed by CAF Director of Tournaments and Events, Samson Adamu, CAF explained that results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams in each group will no longer count when comparing second-placed teams.

The rule, drawn from Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 preliminary competition regulations, aims to standardize the evaluation process across all groups.

“Whenever a group has fewer than five teams due to withdrawal or disqualification, results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will not be considered when determining the best runners-up,” the circular stated.

The new regulation could reshape the qualification standings. According to early projections, several teams currently in contention — such as Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon — could each lose up to six points once results against bottom-placed teams are excluded. Meanwhile, Cameroon may lose four points, but Nigeria could benefit substantially, potentially climbing higher in the overall runners-up table. But they have to win their remaining two matches to be in contention for the group leadership or the secondary qualifying series of play-off.

Why the Rule Favours Nigeria

Nigeria currently sit outside the top spot in their qualifying group but remain in contention for one of the playoff positions reserved for the best four runners-up.

The Super Eagles have drawn both their matches against Zimbabwe, who presently occupy the bottom of Group C. In essence, the last minute goal conceded in Uyo last March could be blessing in disguise.

Under the new rule, those two draws — worth two points — would be removed from Nigeria’s total if Zimbabwe remain bottom. However, while Nigeria would lose only two points, many rival second-placed teams could lose between four and six points, giving the Super Eagles a relative advantage.

In practical terms, this adjustment means that if Nigeria finish second behind South Africa or Benin, their overall points tally could still place them among the top four second-placed teams — especially if they secure maximum points from their remaining fixtures against Lesotho and Benin Republic.

Analysis: CAF’s Balancing Act and Nigeria’s Renewed Hope

CAF’s decision reflects an attempt to maintain competitive integrity after Eritrea’s withdrawal disrupted the symmetry of the qualification groups.

By nullifying results against the lowest-ranked teams, the governing body ensures all second-placed nations are compared on a level playing field — based on equal numbers of matches and similar competitive balance.

For Nigeria, this adjustment offers a mathematical lifeline. The Super Eagles’ path to automatic qualification — by topping their group — remains the primary goal. But should they fall short, this rule revision provides a crucial backup route to the playoffs.

The timing of the rule change is also significant. With only a few matches left in the campaign, Nigeria’s qualification fate could hinge not only on their performance but also on how other second-placed teams are recalculated under the new system.

It also serves as a reminder of the fine margins in World Cup qualifying — where even administrative revisions can alter a nation’s destiny.

What Lies Ahead

Nigeria face Lesotho in Polokwane and Benin in Uyo in their upcoming fixtures, knowing that six points could transform their campaign. Head coach Eric Chelle will be urging his players to treat every match as a final, given the complex permutations now in play.

With the CAF revision effectively narrowing the gap between groups, Nigeria’s fate is once again in their hands — a rare turn of fortune after a turbulent qualifying run.

In a qualification series marked by unpredictability, this rule change might just be the break the Super Eagles need to return to the global stage after missing the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

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BY KUNLE SOLAJA.

The stakes could not be higher as Nigeria’s Super Eagles face Lesotho in a crucial 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying encounter at the Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane, South Africa, this Friday evening.

It is another desperate situation for Nigeria as it was in the qualifying duels for 2002 World Cup and that of 2010.

In both instances, qualification tickets were snatched at the last moments. In the 2002 race where a George Weah-inspired Liberia became the front runner, it was a dramatic 4-0 away win against Sudan and concurrent Liberia home loss to an already eliminated Ghana that turned the tide in Nigeria’s favour.

History might also repeat itself on this day. Similarly, in the final race to the 2010World Cup, Tunisia were the leaders as the Nigerian team displayed epileptic form just in this current qualifier.

A dramatic turn-around came when Nigeria beat Kenya away and Mozambique also beat Tunisia in the dying-minutes of an encounter that was going the North Africans’ way.

Now with only two matches left in the qualifying campaign, Nigeria’s hopes of reaching the 2026 finals hang delicately in the balance.

The recent decision by FIFA to dock South Africa three points for fielding an ineligible player against Lesotho has reopened the group, giving Nigeria a narrow but vital lifeline.

The Group C table remains tight, with Nigeria needing nothing short of victory to keep their World Cup dreams alive before the final group clash against Benin Republic.

Results elsewhere in Group C matter. Nigeria will hope both Benin Republic and South Africa falter in their respective away games to Rwanda and Zimbabwe.

Rwanda, with 11 points like Nigeria remain a potential qualifier. Zimbabwe, playing their home game away in South Africa can only play a ‘spoiler’s role. The three matches are expected to be played concurrently.

Only the team that finishes top will qualify automatically, while the runners-up must rely on a playoff route.

Lesotho, meanwhile, are fifth in the group but have shown flashes of resilience throughout the campaign.

The Crocodiles, as they are nicknamed, have shared their goals among several players — Motlomelo Mkwanazi, Lehlohonolo Fothoane, Rethabile Rasethuntsa and Jane Thabantso — and are expected to adopt a cautious, counter-attacking style against the Nigerians.

Though officially designated as a “home” fixture for Lesotho, the match will again be played in South Africa, where they host their international games due to stadium limitations in Maseru.

For Nigeria, this is a game they simply cannot afford to drop. The Super Eagles have endured an inconsistent campaign, managing only two wins from eight matches so far.

 Injuries have also complicated the team’s preparations. Defender Ola Aina remains sidelined with a hamstring problem, while there are fitness concerns around Bright Osayi-Samuel and striker Cyriel Dessers.

The possible return of forward Victor Osimhen could prove decisive, as head coach Eric Chelle is expected to deploy an attacking line-up that reflects the urgency of the occasion. Nigeria are likely to set up in a 4-3-3 formation, pressing high and pushing for early goals.

Despite their struggles, Nigeria’s record against Lesotho offers encouragement. The Super Eagles have never lost to the Crocodiles, though the reverse fixture in Uyo ended in a shock 1–1 draw — a result that Nigeria will be desperate to avoid repeating.

Analysts and betting markets strongly favour Nigeria to win, with most predictions pointing to a 2–0 or 3–1 outcome in their favour.

Goals will be crucial as they may be the ultimate decider as the Group C could get to the last match day next week will all top four – Benin, South Africa, Nigeria and Rwanda all going to the final day on 14 points in the event of possible Nigeria, Rwanda and Zimbabwe victories this Friday.

Yet, the Crocodiles have proven capable of frustrating superior opposition, and their disciplined defending may once again test the Nigerians’ patience.

For Lesotho, it is another chance to play spoilers in one of African football’s most competitive qualification groups. For Nigeria, it is a moment of reckoning — a battle for pride, redemption, and survival on the road to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

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Algeria sealed qualification for the FIFA World Cup 2026™ after a commanding victory over Somalia, while Uganda boosted their playoff hopes with a crucial win against Botswana.

The Desert Warriors became the latest African side to book their place in North America, maintaining an unassailable lead at the top of Group G.

Uganda, meanwhile, strengthened their grip on second place, moving three points clear of Mozambique, whose defeat to Guinea effectively ended their qualification bid.

In Group H, Liberia revived their hopes of reaching the continental play-offs after beating Namibia, while Kenya claimed a morale-boosting win over Burundi in Group F.

Group G: Algeria cruise past Somalia to seal World Cup return

Somalia 0–3 Algeria
Scorers: Amoura (6′, 58′), Mahrez (19′)

Algeria confirmed their return to the world stage with a 3–0 win over Somalia in Oran.

Mohamed Amoura opened the scoring early on, volleying home from Riyad Mahrez’s cross. The captain then turned scorer, rifling in a bouncing ball to double the lead.

Mahrez later turned provider again, delivering another precise cross for Amoura to head home his second.

The victory marks Algeria’s fifth World Cup qualification and their first since 2014, when they reached the Round of 16 before losing narrowly to eventual champions Germany.

Group G: Uganda tighten grip on second place

Botswana 0–1 Uganda
Scorer: Ssemugabi (54′)

Jude Ssemugabi’s header early in the second half proved decisive as Uganda earned a vital win over Botswana to consolidate second place in the group.

The Cranes dominated possession and created the better chances, with Rogers Mato forcing a fine save in the first half.

Ssemugabi’s close-range finish was enough to seal victory, despite late pressure from the hosts.

Uganda now need just a draw in their final match against already-qualified Algeria to secure a top-two finish — and a potential spot among the four best runners-up heading into the playoffs.

Group G: Mozambique slip up as Guinea exit

Mozambique 1–2 Guinea
Scorers: Reinildo (19′) – Traore (2′, 59′)

Mozambique’s qualification hopes suffered a major blow after a surprise home defeat to Guinea.

Abdoul Traore’s early header put the visitors ahead before Reinildo levelled for Mozambique with a powerful finish from Geny Catamo’s cross.

However, Traore restored Guinea’s lead in the second half with a fierce strike that slipped through goalkeeper Ernan Siluane’s hands.

Despite the win, Guinea’s campaign came to an end as they were mathematically eliminated, along with Botswana.

Group H: Liberia stun Namibia to stay alive

Liberia 3–1 Namibia
Scorers: Kosiah (pen 3′), Bah (9′), Ledlum (81′) – Ndeunyema (86′)

Liberia kept their playoff hopes alive with an emphatic victory over Namibia, closing the gap on the second-placed Brave Warriors to just one point.

The hosts made a dream start when Ayouba Kosiah converted an early penalty before Sulahmana Bah added a second after rounding the goalkeeper.

Substitute Edward Ledlum sealed the win late on with a curling effort from the edge of the area. David Ndeunyema scored a consolation goal for Namibia in the final minutes.

Group F: Kenya edge Burundi in fiery contest

Burundi 0–1 Kenya
Scorer: Ogam (73′)

Ten-man Burundi fell to a narrow defeat against Kenya in a hard-fought encounter.

Burundi’s Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana was sent off after just two minutes for a reckless challenge on Kenyan goalkeeper Brian Bwire, who had to be stretchered off.

Substitute keeper Byrne Odhiambo impressed, making several key saves to preserve Kenya’s clean sheet.

The decisive moment came when Ryan Ogam, introduced midway through the second half, curled home a stunning long-range effort to secure the win.

Cafonline

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