BY ALEX OLLER.

With sports diplomacy at the core of the issue, some question whether Donald Trump’s recent immigration and transgender policies might end up costing the United States millions of dollars and even more in reputation as the country ploughs ahead in the organisation of the next Summer Games.

The recently-elected North American leader first threatened years ago to build a wall on the southern border with Mexico and partially succeeded in his first term. In the leadup to his second mandate, he promised mass deportations of illegal migrants and has started carrying them out at a record pace since taking office in January. At 78 years old, Trump seems as proactive as ever and just doubled down on what he calls “the defence of women’s sport” by issuing a warning that he would not allow transgender athletes to compete in the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games.

With most in the Republican party abhorring the notion that gender could be defined by something other than males and females, the matter is front and centre when it comes to sporting competition, and the US president is making sure his newest eligibility guidelines are pushed through, as made evident last week when he unilaterally decided to exclude transgender girls and women from female sports and urged the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to “change everything to do with the Olympics and this absolutely ridiculous subject”.

While the United States claims to be “the land of the free and the home of the brave” in its national anthem, restrictions and subsequent fear are spreading like wildfire on many fronts of late. Getting into the country has historically been quite the ordeal for the many migrants that today strengthen the backbone of the world superpower, and Trump’s re-election after being ousted from office four years ago will most definitely not make it any easier, quite the contrary. Yet one problem, setting aside moral and humanitarian concerns, could very well be one Republicans understand quite well: Money.

As the country gears up for the celebration of seven big-time events in the next 10 years, including the FIFA 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Olympics, the fear among organisers and sporting bodies alike is that even stricter immigration policies end up resulting in the worst-case scenario of both fans and athletes being left at the gate, with the ensuing and considerable revenue loss if the situation escalates; not to mention a major hit to the nation’s democratic reputation.

“The Trump administration didn’t prioritize visa processing in its first term. It really slowed it down, removing requirements to process visas quickly. So I can’t imagine that there’s going to be some full-court press to get these visas processed in a short amount of time,” David J. Bier, Associate Director for Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute told The Los Angeles Times last month. “It’s going to be a massive problem. There’s no one paying attention to this at all.”

The fact is that, despite FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s desire to stage “the most inclusive World Cup ever” in about a year and a half, the US remains a tough sell when it comes to open-arms policies as Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) slogan solidifies itself through a revamped administration that is dealing with major upheaval since he was sworn in for his second go-round. North of six million visitors are expected to attend the tournament by early calculations, and a Los Angeles-sized bureaucratic gridlock could very well jeopardise the event’s financial turnout, setting a terrible precedent that looms large over the Summer Games’ still positive current outlook, despite the many setbacks.

The tragic California fires hit hard as the host city pushes to overcome the destruction and keep the Olympic spirit alive, but the multicultural fabric of Angelinos remains mostly intact for now, even as the new anti-immigration policies are resulting in traumatic raids and sped-up deportations, especially within the Latino communities.

About a quarter of the close to two million applicants for visas were denied entry in 2023 under the previous Joe Biden administration, and the crackdown by the re-energised MAGA movement foresees an even sharper whip regarding the refusal of migrants or even tourists; and now it seems, also transgenders as the Department of Homeland Security will be able to “review and adjust, as needed, policies permitting admission to the United States of males seeking to participate in women’s sports.”

While transgender participation has rarely been an issue in Olympic history after such athletes were allowed to compete for the first time about two decades ago, the far-more-complex topic of gender eligibility remains a hot-button, unresolved topic that blew up in Paris 2024 with the boxing tournament’s gender row. As blowback mounted regarding the inclusion of allegedly suspect female fighters Imane Khelif and Lin Yu-ting, who had previously been barred from competing in the International Boxing Association championships for failing their eligibility guidelines, critics often mistakenly lumped both into the “transgender” category; a misconception that the IOC was quick to point out. Even their characterization as Differences in Sexual Development (DSD) athletes remains flawed, as no such evidence has been provided to date.

Regardless, Trump has marched on with his so-called “defence of the women’s category”, fully backed (or led) by new best friend and fellow mogul Elon Musk, who is also spearheading widespread cutbacks on federal funding in an advisory role. That tendency would most definitely take its toll on an already bare-bones system that features long wait periods for the processing of all kinds of visas, which could very well discourage many supporters from attending both the FIFA World Cup and ensuing sporting events.

“I am deeply concerned that there does not seem to be an appetite for making sure that the State Department is funded and prepared and focused on this issue,” California Congresswoman Sydney Kamlager-Dove recently told the press. “It is untenable that we would not surge resources to make sure that we have the right folks in the right places. They need to facilitate these interviews and get these visas to those who are trying to enter our country for legitimate reasons. It will be unacceptable that we allow our country to fail at putting our best foot forward for the World Cup.”

Even as Musk and other newly-appointed government officials axe away at the federal budget, Trump has showcased his closeness with Infantino in the buildup to the football -or ‘soccer’- extravaganza while he patiently awaits for the IOC to elect a new leader to succeed German Thomas Bach in its March presidential election. The American has avoided pronouncing his preferred candidate among the seven finalists for now, yet it appears logical that Briton Sebastian Coe would emerge as his top choice, with the current boss of World Athletics having displayed the harshest hand on the gender debate so far, effectively banning DSD athletes from track & field competitions.

While none of the presidential hopefuls are proposing a veto on transgender participation at the Olympics as of now and the IOC has publicly insisted that it intends to operate without political interference, an unnamed US official recently warned reporters that “if you are coming into the country and you are claiming that you are a woman, but you are a male here to compete against women, we’re going to be reviewing that for fraud.”

Even if the anti-migrant, zero tolerance on transgenders rhetoric undeniably resonates with the MAGA fanbase, the greater Los Angeles area is still hoping to rake in around $600 million (€580 million) from around 180,000 expected World Cup visitors, according to a report by Micronomics Economic Research and Consulting, with calculations reaching the $3.75 billion (€3.63 bn) mark on a national level.

As for the US State Department, it recently issued a statement stressing that it is “committed to protecting our nation and its citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process.”

-Inside the Games

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