Premier League
Computers say Arsenal won’t win title, on the pitch they look like champions in waiting
The super computers and number crunchers still don’t fancy Arsenal’s chances of winning a compelling three-way Premier League title race despite, on current form, the London club being the best team in England.
Twelve months ago Arsenal were gobbled up by a relentless Manchester City in a two-horse race, but this time Mikel Arteta’s side are showing absolutely no sign of flinching and lead Liverpool on goal difference and City by one point.
They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games with the only dropped points coming in a masterful 0-0 draw at champions Manchester City that was concrete proof of how much they improved from last year’s model.
Arsenal have scored 20 times in their last five away league games in which they conceded not a single goal.
They wear the confident look of champions elect but there are caveats, notably a seven-game run in that looks tougher than Liverpool’s and Manchester City’s with matches against Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Premier League data analysts Opta ran the likely scenarios through their computer after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United on Sunday and come up with a conclusion that will not be comforting for Arsenal fans.
In fact the weekend’s matches, which began with City’s 4-2 win at Crystal Palace and included Arsenal’s superlative 3-0 win away at Brighton and Hove Albion appear to have skewed the title race firmly in favour of Pep Guardiola’s City.
Before the weekend City were 33.6% likely to win a fourth successive title, according to Opta. That has now increased to 40.6%. Arsenal’s title-winning chance is 30.3% with Liverpool slipping from favourites to third at 29.1% — a 15.9% drop from before the last round of fixtures.
A look at the remaining fixtures explains why City are marginally the more likely to prevail in the tightest three-way title duel since City edged out a stumbling Liverpool and Chelsea by two and four points respectively in 2013-14.
Six of City’s last seven games are against Luton Town (h), Brighton and Hove Albion (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h), Fulham (a) and West Ham United (h) with their biggest test being a trip to Tottenham Hotspur.
Arsenal host fifth-placed Aston Villa on Saturday before Wolves (a), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a) and Everton (h).
Liverpool face Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a) and Wolves (h).
While the algorithms still favour City, Arsenal’s hopes of a first league title in 20 years are boosted by a far superior goal difference compared to their two rivals.
In a race that looks like going to the wire, that could be crucial, although Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp knows there will be many more twists and turns to come.
“I knew it would be super tricky until the end. Until yesterday we were top, now it’s Arsenal and — I don’t know when — then it may be somebody else,” he said.
-Reuters
A VAR decision chalking off what looked to be a late winner for Chelsea at Aston Villa on Saturday has damaged the Premier League, the London club’s manager Mauricio Pochettino said.
His side thought they have completed a remarkable comeback when substitute Axel Disasi netted in second-half stoppage time, but the goal was ruled out after a VAR review penalised a push by Benoit Badiashile in the build-up.
“Me and you and everyone in the stadium watching the game, they didn’t see a foul on the pitch and then VAR changed the decision of the referee. For me that was a normal challenge. The decision was there and that’s it,” Pochettino told broadcaster TNT following the 2-2 draw.
“For me, it damaged a little bit the Premier League and English (football). If we want to be the best league in the world it should be protecting the spectacle and the decision … (it) damaged myself, damaged my team, my players, the fans,” he added.
Chelsea were 2-0 down at the break but goals from Noni Madueke and Conor Gallagher put them level before the late goal was overturned.
“The performance was very good and we played really well. It is true in the first half we conceded easy … to play Villa, who are fighting for the top four, I am pleased with the team and the players were good,” Pochettino said.
Villa boss Unai Emery said his side, who are currently in fourth spot and seven points ahead of Tottenham Hotspur, still had their sights set on qualifying for next season’s Champions League. Spurs, however, have three games in hand.
“We have to try to keep being consistent with the players we have and I believe in the players … in Premier League we are fighting with Tottenham for fourth position,” he said.
-Reuters
Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah appeared to have a heated exchange with manager Juergen Klopp shortly before the Egypt international was brought on as a second-half substitute in a 2-2 Premier League draw at West Ham United on Saturday.
Salah, who has not been at his best since returning from injury last month, was brought on in the 79th minute, just after the Hammers’ second goal levelled the game.
He appeared angry with Klopp on the touchline before he was introduced and continued to remonstrate with his manager as fellow substitute Darwin Nunez pushed him away from the German.
Klopp tried to play down the incident, telling reporters: “We spoke about that in the dressing room and it’s done for me, that’s all.”
But Salah seemed to have a different perspective and refused interviews with reporters in the mixed zone, saying: “There’s going to be fire today if I speak.”
Saturday’s draw further dented Liverpool’s already slim chances of winning the Premier League in Klopp’s final season with the club and leaves them reliant on rivals Arsenal and Manchester City dropping points in the run-in.
-Reuters
Leicester City earned promotion back to the Premier League on Friday after nearest rivals Leeds United were beaten 4-0 by Queens Park Rangers, ensuring the Championship leaders will finish in the top two in the standings.
This means that the Super Eagles duo of Kelechi Iheanacho and Wilfred Ndidi, both players of Leicester City again taste action in the English Premier League next season.
The result of Leed City and QPR left second-placed Leeds’s chances of automatic promotion from the second-tier Championship hanging by a thread. They trail Leicester by four points with one game left to play and are only a point ahead of Ipswich Town, who have two games in hand.
It was a dream first half for QPR as the London side scored two goals without reply.
First Ilias Chair scored with a deflected effort from outside the area, while a curled finish from Lucas Andersen midway through the first half made it 2-0.
Leeds tried to up the pressure in the second half but with little effect, with French forward Georginio Rutter pulling a shot wide from the middle of the penalty area.
Scottish forward Lyndon Dykes and Sam Field both scored headers from set pieces in the second half to complete the 4-0 win.
Leeds manager Daniel Farke turned to his bench to try and influence the game and it was one of those substitutes, striker Mateo Joseph, who came closest, seeing his close-range attempt turned wide by Rangers keeper Asmir Begovic
-Reuters
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