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Analysis: US military mission in Niger in focus after coup

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General Abdourahmane Tiani, who was declared as the new head of state of Niger by leaders of a coup, arrives to meet with ministers in Niamey, Niger July 28, 2023. REUTERS/Balima Boureima/File Photo

Last month’s coup in Niger has raised questions over whether the United States can continue the 1,100-strong military presence in the country that officials and analysts say has been key to fighting Islamist militants in the Sahel region.

Over the past decade, U.S. troops have trained Nigerien forces in counterterrorism and operated two military bases, including one that conducts drone missions against Islamic State and an Al Qaeda affiliate in the region.

After ousting President Mohamed Bazoum from office on July 26 and placing him under house arrest, the junta revoked military cooperation agreements with France, which has between 1,000 and 1,500 troops in the country.

So far the United States has not received any request to remove its troops and does not have any indication that it will be forced to do so, said two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

But with the West African regional bloc ECOWAS threatening military intervention and Russia’s Wagner mercenary group offering help to the coup leaders – both of which could pose safety risks for U.S. military personnel – U.S. planners could find themselves contemplating a future without a foothold in a part of Africa facing insurgencies and where the U.S. vies with Russia and China for influence.

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“Our drone base in Niger is extremely important in countering terrorism in the region,” one of the U.S. officials said. “If that closed down, it would be a huge blow.”

FOREIGN ASSISTANCE

The Biden administration has not formally labeled the military takeover in Niger a coup, a designation that would limit what security assistance Washington can provide the country.

Still, the United States last week paused certain foreign assistance programs for Niger and said on Tuesday that included funding for international military education and training and programs that support Niger’s counterterrorism capabilities. Military training is on hold.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined to comment on Tuesday in a BBC interview on the future presence of U.S. troops, who are in Niger with the approval of the ousted government.

The U.S. drone base has grown in importance due to a lack of Western security partners in the region.

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Military juntas have come to power through coups in Mali and Burkina Faso – both neighbors of Niger – in recent years. More than 2,000 French troops left Mali last year and a 13,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping force is due to shut down by the end of the year after the junta abruptly asked it to leave.

The drone base, known as airbase 201, was built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than $100 million. Since 2018, it has been used to target Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), in the Sahel.

Since the coup, U.S. troops are largely staying on their bases and U.S. military flights, including drones, are being individually approved, according to the U.S. officials.

Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. official who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said he thinks it is likely Washington will try to keep using the drone base irrespective of who was in charge of Niger.

“From a political or from an optics perspective, it’s certainly easier to defend,” said Hudson, explaining that while the cooperation of Niger’s authorities was needed to stay, it helps the U.S. gather intelligence on militant targets across the region and would not directly benefit the junta.

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The U.S. may have to reconsider its presence if the members of ECOWAS, who will meet Thursday, decide to intervene militarily. The junta defied an Aug. 6 ECOWAS deadline to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

Terence McCulley, who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Mali, Nigeria and Ivory Coast and is now at the United States Institute of Peace, said that the U.S. military would make a “force protection decision” if conflict erupted, adding that such an intervention was theoretical at this point and he did not expect ECOWAS would stage such an operation rapidly.

WAGNER COMPLICATION

Another complicating factor could be any decision by Niger’s coup leaders to seek help from Wagner Group, which the U.S. has designated a transnational criminal organization. Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has welcomed the coup in Niger and said his forces were available to restore order.

Wagner mercenaries teamed up with Mali’s junta in 2021 and has about 1,000 fighters in the country, where jihadists control large swathes of the desert north and center.

One of the U.S. officials said if Wagner fighters turn up in Niger it would not automatically mean U.S. forces would have to leave.

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The official said a scenario where a few dozen Wagner forces base themselves in Niger’s capital Niamey was unlikely to affect the United States’ military presence.

But if thousands of Wagner fighters spread across the country, including near Agadez, problems could arise because of safety concerns for U.S. personnel.

Regardless, the U.S. will put a high bar for any decision to leave the country.

“The only way this mission ends is if the Nigerien government asks us to leave,” the first U.S. official said. “It’s too important for us to abandon.”

-Reuters

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Kunle Solaja is the author of landmark books on sports and journalism as well as being a multiple award-winning journalist and editor of long standing. He is easily Nigeria’s foremost soccer diarist and Africa's most capped FIFA World Cup journalist, having attended all FIFA World Cup finals from Italia ’90 to Qatar 2022. He was honoured at the Qatar 2022 World Cup by FIFA and AIPS.

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Trump threatens US military action in Nigeria over treatment of Christians

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said he has asked the Defense Department to prepare for possible “fast” military action in Nigeria if the West African nation fails to crack down on the killing of Christians.

The U.S. government will also immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and top oil producer, Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

If the United States sends in military forces, it would go in “‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,” Trump wrote, without providing any evidence of specifics about the treatment of Christians in Nigeria.

Trump called Nigeria a “disgraced country” and warned its government must move quickly. “If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!” he wrote.

Abuja had no immediate reaction to Trump’s threat of military action. The White House also had no immediate comment on the potential timing of any U.S. military action.

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Although the U.S. Department of Defense referred Reuters to the White House for comment on Trump’s threat, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth released a social media post of his own.

“The Department of War is preparing for action,” Hegseth wrote on X. “Either the Nigerian Government protects Christians, or we will kill the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.”

Trump’s post on Nigeria came a day after his administration added Nigeria back to a “Countries of Particular Concern” list of nations that the U.S. says have violated religious freedom. Other nations on the list include China, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia and Pakistan.

Before Trump posted his attack threat, Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu earlier on Saturday pushed back against claims of religious intolerance and defended his country’s efforts to protect religious freedom.

“The characterization of Nigeria as religiously intolerant does not reflect our national reality, nor does it take into consideration the consistent and sincere efforts of the government to safeguard freedom of religion and beliefs for all Nigerians,” Tinubu said in a statement, citing “constitutional guarantees to protect citizens of all faiths.”

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Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry, in a separate statement, vowed to keep fighting violent extremism and said it hoped Washington would remain a close ally, saying it “will continue to defend all citizens, irrespective of race, creed, or religion. Like America, Nigeria has no option but to celebrate the diversity that is our greatest strength.”

The U.S. military footprint in West Africa was significantly diminished when about 1,000 troops withdrew from Niger last year. While the U.S. sometimes has small groups of troops in the region to take part in drills, the largest U.S. military base on the continent is in East Africa in Djibouti, which hosts over 5,000 troops and is used for operations in the region.

TRUMP PUT NIGERIA ON ‘CONCERN LIST’ DURING FIRST TERM

Trump had designated Nigeria a country of concern during his first term in the White House. His Democratic successor Joe Biden removed it from the U.S. State Department list in 2021.

On Friday, Trump said “thousands of Christians” were being killed in Nigeria by radical Islamists, but offered no details.

Nigeria, which has 200 ethnic groups practicing Christianity, Islam and traditional religions, has a long history of peaceful coexistence, but it has also seen flare-ups of violence among groups, often exacerbated by ethnic divisions or conflict over scarce resources.

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The extremist Islamist armed group Boko Haram has also terrorized northeast Nigeria, an insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of people over the past 15 years. Human rights experts have said most Boko Haram victims have been Muslims.

U.S. lawmakers such as Representative Tom Cole, a Republican who chairs the U.S. House of Representatives Appropriations Committee, hailed Trump’s move on Friday, citing what they called “the alarming and ongoing persecution of Christians across the country.”

The committee’s fiscal 2026 national security appropriations bill included increased funding for international religious freedom programs and support for programs supporting communities in Nigeria targeted by extremist violence.

Trump’s re-designation of Nigeria as a country of concern opens the door to a range of policy responses such as sanctions or waivers, but they are not automatic.

Some religious groups pressed Trump for the re-designation in a letter last month, according to a copy on the Hudson Institute think tank’s website.

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“Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria. Thousands of Christians are being killed. Radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter,” Trump wrote without offering any specifics. He also called on the U.S. House of Representatives Appropriations Committee to investigate.

Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey and Idrees Ali in Washington, Ismail Shakil in Ottawa and Camillus Eboh in Abuja; Editing by MacDonald Dzirutwe, Andrea Ricci, Sergio Non and Lincoln Feast.

-Reuters

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Syrian Christians attend services, schools reopen a week after Assad’s overthrow

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Members of the Orthodox community of Latakia attend a Sunday Mass conducted by Athanasios Fahed, Metropolitan of Latakia and its dependencies for the Greek Orthodox, at St. George's Cathedral in Latakia, Syria, December 15, 2024. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Syrian Christians attended regular Sunday services for the first time since the dramatic overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad a week ago, in an early test of assurances by the new Islamist rulers that the rights of minorities will be protected.

As the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept to power last week, it sought to reassure Syria’s minority groups that their way of life would not be at risk.

Before Assad fell, historic religious minority groups, including Christians, worshipped freely and some remain jittery at the prospect of an Islamist government.

Streets in the heavily Christian Damascus neighbourhood of Bab Touma filled with worshippers returning from church on Sunday morning but some struck a note of caution.

“We’re scared, we’re still scared,” said local resident Maha Barsa after attending Mass at the local Greek Melkite Catholic church.

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Barsa said she had barely left her home since HTS took over one week ago, though she said that nothing had happened to warrant her concern, adding: “Things are ambiguous.”

In the coastal city of Latakia, long an Assad stronghold, Lina Akhras, a parish council secretary at the St George Greek Orthodox Cathedral, said on Sunday that Christians had been “comfortable” under his rule in terms of freedom of belief but that they just wanted to live in peace and harmony.

“(Assad’s fall) happened all of a sudden, we didn’t know what to expect… Thank God, we received a lot of assurances and we saw that members of the (HTS) committee reached out to our priest,” she told Reuters.

“God willing, we will return to our previous lives and live in our beautiful Syria,” Akhras added.

Syria is home to multiple ethnic and religious minorities including Christians, Armenians, Kurds and Shi’ite Muslims. The Assad family itself belongs to the minority Alawite faith, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam, in Sunni Muslim-majority Syria.

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Tens of thousands of mostly Shi’ite Muslims have fled Syria for Lebanon in the last week out of fear of persecution by the country’s new rulers, a senior Lebanese security official told Reuters last week.

The protection of Syria’s minorities was a key concern on Saturday when top diplomats from Arab nations, Turkey, the United States and European Union met in Jordan.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said they backed an inclusive and representative government that would respect minority rights and not offer “a base for terrorist groups”.

SCHOOLS REOPEN

Syrian students also returned to classrooms on Sunday after the new rulers ordered schools reopened in another potent sign of some normalcy.

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The country’s new de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, faces a massive challenge to rebuild Syria after the civil war, in which hundreds of thousands were killed. Cities were bombed to ruins, the economy was gutted by international sanctions and millions of refugees still live in camps outside Syria.

Officials said most schools were opening around the country on Sunday, the first day of the working week. However, some parents were not sending their children to class due to uncertainty over the situation.

Pupils waited cheerfully in the courtyard of a boys’ high school in Damascus on Sunday morning and applauded as the school secretary, Raed Nasser, hung the flag adopted by the new authorities.

In one classroom, a student pasted the new flag on a wall.

“I am optimistic and very happy,” said student Salah al-Din Diab. “I used to walk in the street scared that I would get drafted to military service. I used to be afraid when I reach a checkpoint.”

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ENDING SANCTIONS?

As Syria starts trying to rebuild, its neighbours and other foreign powers are still working out a new stance on the country, a week after the collapse of the Assad government that was backed by Iran and Russia.

Sharaa – better known by his rebel nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani – leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that swept Assad from power last week. HTS is a group formerly allied with al-Qaeda that is designated a terrorist organization by many governments, and is also under United Nations sanctions.

U.N. Syria envoy Geir Pedersen said on Sunday he hoped for a swift end to the sanctions to help facilitate economic recovery.

“We will hopefully see a quick end to sanctions so that we can see really rallying around building up Syria,” Pedersen said as he arrived in Damascus to meet Syria’s caretaker government and other officials.

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-Reuters

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Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani: former al Qaeda chief who led overthrow of Syria’s Assad?

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Then-Syrian Islamist rebel group Nusra Front leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks at an unknown location in this still image from 2016 file video obtained December 5, 2024. Orient TV/Reuters TV via REUTERS
  • Summary
  • Golani fought for al Qaeda, designated terrorist by US
  • Cut ties with al Qaeda in 2016
  • Rebranded Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, moderating image
  • As rebels take over, Golani tries to reassure minorities
  • Golani’s HTS had for years governed chunk of northwest

As the commander of al Qaeda’s franchise in the Syrian civil war, Abu Mohammed al-Golani was a shadowy figure who kept out of the public eye, even when his group became the most powerful faction fighting President Bashar al-Assad.

Today, he is the most recognisable of Syria’s triumphant insurgents, having gradually stepped into the limelight since severing ties to al Qaeda in 2016, rebranding his group and emerging as the de facto ruler of rebel-held northwestern Syria.

The transformation has been showcased since rebels led by Golani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Nusra Front, swept through the nation and declared they had ousted Assad on Sunday after seizing the capital Damascus.

Golani has featured prominently in the takeover, sending messages aimed at reassuring Syrian minorities who have long feared the jihadists.

“The future is ours,” he said in a statement read on Syria’s state TV, urging his fighters not to harm those who drop arms.

When rebels entered Aleppo, pre-war Syria’s largest city, at the start of their sweep to Damascus, a video showed Golani in military fatigues issuing orders by phone, reminding fighters to protect the people and forbidding them from entering homes.

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He visited Aleppo’s citadel accompanied by a fighter waving a Syrian revolution flag: once shunned by Nusra as a symbol of apostasy but recently embraced by Golani in a nod to Syria’s more mainstream opposition.

“Golani has been smarter than Assad. He’s retooled, he’s refashioned, made new allies, and come out with his charm offensive” towards minorities, said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

PR EFFORT?

Aron Lund, a fellow at think-tank Century International, said Golani and HTS had clearly changed though still remaining “pretty hardline”.

“It’s PR, but the fact they are engaging in this effort at all shows they are no longer as rigid as they once were. Old-school al Qaeda or the Islamic State would never have done that,” he said.

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Golani and the Nusra Front emerged as the most powerful of the multitude of rebel factions that sprang up in the early days of the insurgency against Assad over a decade ago.

Before founding the Nusra Front, Golani had fought for al Qaeda in Iraq, where he spent five years in a U.S. prison. He returned to Syria once the uprising began, sent by the leader of the Islamic State group in Iraq at the time – Abu Omar al-Baghdadi – to build up al Qaeda’s presence.

The U.S. designated Golani a terrorist in 2013, saying that al Qaeda in Iraq had tasked him with overthrowing Assad’s rule and establishing Islamic sharia law in Syria, and that Nusra had carried out suicide attacks that killed civilians and espoused a violent sectarian vision.

Turkey, the Syrian opposition’s main foreign backer, has designated HTS a terrorist group, while supporting some of the other factions that fight in the northwest.

Golani gave his first media interview in 2013, his face wrapped in a dark scarf and showing only his back to the camera. Speaking to Al Jazeera, he called for Syria to be run according to sharia law.

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Some eight years later, he sat down for an interview with the U.S. Public Broadcasting Service’s FRONTLINE programme, facing the camera and wearing a shirt and jacket.

Golani said the terrorist designation was unfair and that he opposed the killing of innocent people.

He detailed how the Nusra Front had expanded from the six men who accompanied him from Iraq to 5,000 within a year.

But he said that his group had never presented a threat to the West. “I repeat – our involvement with al Qaeda has ended, and even when we were with al Qaeda we were against carrying out operations outside of Syria, and it’s completely against our policy to carry out external action.”

MESSAGES TO MINORITIES

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Golani fought a bloody war against his old ally Baghdadi after Islamic State sought to unilaterally subsume the Nusra Front in 2013. Despite its al Qaeda ties, Nusra was regarded as more tolerant and less heavy handed in dealings with civilians and other rebel groups compared to Islamic State.

Islamic State was subsequently beaten out of territory it held in both Syria and Iraq by an array of adversaries including a U.S.-led military alliance.

As Islamic State was collapsing, Golani was cementing the grip of HTS in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, establishing a civil administration called the Salvation Government.

Assad’s government viewed HTS as terrorists, along with the rest of the rebels.

With the Sunni Muslim rebels now in control, the HTS administration has issued statements seeking to assure the Shi’ite Alawites and other Syrian minorities. One statement urged the Alawites to be a part of a future Syria that “does not recognise sectarianism”.

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In a message to residents of a Christian town south of Aleppo, Golani said they would be protected and their property safeguarded, urging them to remain in their homes and to reject the Syrian government’s “psychological warfare”.

“He’s really important. The main rebel leader in Syria, the most powerful Islamist,” said Lund.

He said HTS had displayed “logistical and governance capacity” by ruling its own territory in Idlib for years.

“They have adopted the symbols of the wider Syrian uprising… which they now use and try to claim the revolutionary legacy – that ‘we are part of the movement of 2011, the people who rose up against Assad, and we are also Islamists’.”

-Reuters

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