International Football
Market analysts tip Brazil to clinch sixth World Cup in Qatar
Brazil are tipped to claim the World Cup for the sixth time in the tournament that kicks off Nov. 20 in Qatar, according to a Reuters poll that last successfully predicted the champions in 2010.
The global survey of 135 football-following market analysts worldwide agreed with the bookmakers that Brazil would triumph for the first time since 2002.
Almost half of respondents expected Brazil to win while 30% were evenly split between France and Argentina. Germany, England and Belgium scored in high single digits.
“Brazil have a big chance this time with the depth and variation in their attack coupled with experience of Casemiro (midfield) and Thiago Silva at the back,” said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital in Mumbai.
Brazilian talent was prominent in the poll results, with the likes of Neymar and Vinicius Jr, who have boasted brilliant starts to the club season, coupled with goalkeeping duo Alisson and Ederson shining as well.
“We assign a probability of 17% to Brazil winning the tournament, which translates into odds of 5-1,” wrote Peter Dixon, head of EMEA country risk at Fitch Solutions in London.
Dixon put Germany second at 11% (8-1) and France third at 8% (11-1).
His calculations differ from bookmakers odds, which have England as third favourite compared to Dixon’s 4% chance, largely because bookies’ odds are calculated based on how much they would need to pay out, not probabilities.
Forecasters in previous years also used quant models while others used simpler methods such as guesswork and superstition.
EA Sports – creator of the FIFA gaming franchise and which has correctly predicted winners of the previous three World Cups by simulating all 64 matches on their game – said Argentina would lift the trophy.
Argentina, undefeated since losing to Brazil in July 2019, are closing in on Italy’s record of the longest unbeaten streak for any team in international football.
Almost 50% of responses came from Europe, followed by North America and Asia with around 15% each. South American predictions made up just above 10% and the rest were from Africa, Australia or New Zealand.
Spain’s victory at the 2010 tournament in South Africa was the last Reuters survey to correctly predict the winner. Economists failed to forecast Italy’s fourth title in 2006 or the last two won by Germany and France.
If France were to retain the trophy they would be the first to do so since Brazil in 1962.
England’s continual failure to bring the trophy home for the first time since 1966 has not discouraged 5% of forecasters saying they would do so this year.
“Having failed to build on the robust momentum that propelled the nation to the final of Euro 2020, the perennial flops England can only hope to go past the last 16 this time,” said Isaac Matshego, economist at Nedbank in Johannesburg.
Denmark topped the list of underdogs.
Almost half of respondents were split between expecting Lionel Messi or PSG team mate Neymar to win the Golden Ball – awarded to the best player. The Argentine maestro last won it eight years ago in Brazil.
Another PSG man, Kylian Mbappe, was picked as most likely to score the most goals to earn the Golden Boot award.
Qatar has reportedly spent around 220 billion dollars on hosting the tournament – almost fifteen times more than the second-most expensive one – but 41% of respondents said it would have no long-term economic impact.
Almost the same amount said it would be net positive while 21% said it would be negative.
(FACTBOX-Soccer-World Cup 2022 squads: full list of 26-man teams playing in FIFA tournament read more )
-Reuters
In a compelling twist of football destiny, Davide Ancelotti is stepping into his own spotlight as he begins his first head coaching role at Brazilian club Botafogo—just months after parting ways with his legendary father, Carlo Ancelotti, at Real Madrid.
The 35-year-old has been appointed as Botafogo’s new manager, the club announced on Tuesday, following the sacking of Renato Paiva. Davide, who has spent the last decade working alongside his father at some of Europe’s top clubs—including Bayern Munich, Napoli, Everton, and Real Madrid—has signed a one-year deal with the Rio-based team.
This marks a significant milestone for the younger Ancelotti, whose career has long been shaped by his father’s influence, but who now faces the challenge of carving his own identity on the touchline.
The move comes shortly after both father and son departed Real Madrid at the end of last season, with Carlo taking over the Brazilian national team. Now, in a poetic alignment, father and son find themselves on different paths within Brazilian football—one leading the Seleção, the other steering the fortunes of a storied domestic club.
Botafogo’s decision to appoint Davide follows a controversial parting with Paiva, who was dismissed just days after their exit from the Club World Cup. Though he oversaw a stunning win over Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain, a 1-0 extra-time loss to Palmeiras in the round of 16 proved to be his final act after just four months in charge.
As Davide Ancelotti begins this new chapter, all eyes will be on whether the son of one of football’s most decorated managers can step out from his father’s shadow—and perhaps, in time, build a legacy of his own.
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International Football
Players’ union, FIFPRO, wants 20-minute halftimes, more cooling breaks amid extreme heat
Global players’ union FIFPRO is exploring whether extending halftime to 20 minutes and introducing more frequent cooling breaks could better protect players from extreme heat.
Nine of the 16 host cities for the 2026 World Cup face conditions considered “extreme risk” for heat-related illness.
Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Guadalajara, Houston, Kansas City, Miami, Monterrey and Philadelphia are expected to face dangerous levels of heat and humidity, posing player safety concerns and fuelling calls for mandatory cooling aids or schedule changes.
FIFPRO’s heat risk assessments are based on wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a measure combining temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed to estimate how environmental conditions affect the body’s ability to cool itself.
Under FIFPRO guidelines, a WBGT reading above 28 degrees Celsius indicates conditions in which matches should be postponed or rescheduled to protect players’ health.
By comparison, world soccer governing body FIFA’s own guidelines set the extreme risk threshold higher, at 32 degrees Celsius WBGT – but even by that standard, six of the nine cities are still projected to exceed safe limits.
Major League Soccer in the U.S. has a threshold of 29 degrees Celsius WBGT.
“Cooling breaks at the 30th minute and 75th minutes are quite traditional, but from a physiological point of view it does not make sense,” said Vincent Gouttebarge, FIFPRO’s Medical Director.
“Even if you ingest more than 200 millilitres of fluid, you already cannot take it all. So I would definitely like to see some project where we look at the efficacy of perhaps more frequent but shorter cooling breaks – every 15 minutes, rather than only one during each half.”
LONGER HALFTIMES
Gouttebarge also questioned whether the traditional 15-minute halftime interval is sufficient when matches are played in extreme heat.
“You can imagine that halftime of 15 minutes might not be enough in order to decrease the core temperature,” he said.
“It could be a halftime of 20 minutes which would be significant. That has been shown in the laboratory and FIFPRO, together with the national union in Portugal in August, we are going to test this kind of mitigation strategy.”
The urgency of stronger heat protocols became clear at this month’s Club World Cup where two matches — Benfica-Bayern Munich in Charlotte and Chelsea-Esperance in Philadelphia exceeded the WBGT threshold FIFPRO considers unsafe.
“According to our position, those games should have been postponed later that day or rescheduled,” Gouttebarge said.
FIFPRO officials acknowledged that FIFA has responded constructively during the tournament by lowering thresholds for mandatory cooling breaks and improving pitch-side hydration, but stressed that proactive planning is critical.
“FIFA have been quite responsive once the tournament was under way,” said Alex Phillips, FIFPRO General Secretary.
“They have actually modified how they’ve been dealing with heat during the matches based on FIFPRO’s input, which is credit to the work of the team. Obviously, it would have been better if that happened in advance, but it’s better that they have adapted.”
FIFPRO warned that the risks highlighted at the Club World Cup are a preview of what players could face at the expanded 2026 World Cup.
“This is not just affecting the Club World Cup, but also future tournaments either in the U.S. or elsewhere in the world,” said Alexander Bielefeld, FIFPRO Director of Policy & Strategic Relations.
“We need a better balance between commercial interests and the health and safety of players,” he added, referring to earlier kick-off times to accommodate European television audiences.
-Reuters
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Former Manchester United and England midfielder Paul Ince has been charged with drink-driving, police said on Monday.
Ince, who earned 53 caps for England and won two Premier League titles during his six years at United, has been released on bail and will appear in court on July 18.
“The incident involved a black Range Rover which had collided with the central reservation barrier. Officers attended the scene and arrested a 57-year-old man,” the Cheshire police said in a statement.
“Paul Ince, of Quarry Road, Neston, has since been charged with drink-driving.”
Reuters has contacted Ince’s representative for comment.
After retiring as a player, Ince led Milton Keynes Dons to a League Two title in 2007-08. He most recently managed Reading during 2022-23.
-Reuters
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