International Football
VIEWS FROM ELSEWHERE: FIFA RANKING IS NONSENSICAL
SB Nation is a sports news website owned and operated by Vox Media. Established in 2005, the site comprises 320 blogs covering individual professional and college sports teams, and other sports-oriented topics. Kevin McCauley of SB Nation gives his views on the FIFA ranking.
He headlines his views thus:
The FIFA rankings stink. Here’s what the 2018 World Cup would look like with good rankings.
The FIFA men’s rankings are almost universally derided as nonsensical. They are not predictive in any way, and they are easily manipulated with smart scheduling.
This is a problem, given that they’re the basis for seeding in international tournaments. The 2018 World Cup draw has been set, and the pots are based on FIFA’s bad rankings. But what if they were based on considerably less bad rankings?
Currently, the best thing we have to go on is ELO, a system used to rate chess players. No one’s publicly released a widely respected and proven ranking system like KenPom or Sagarin (which uses ELO as a component) for soccer, but we do have reason to believe that ELO is a lot better than FIFA’s men’s rankings.
Even FIFA seems to have some idea that this is case, since their women’s rankings are based on ELO and much more predictive than their men’s rankings.
Using information from ELOratings.net, here’s what the World Cup draw pots would look like if ELO was the ranking system, leaving Russia as a Pot 1 team for being hosts.
Pot 1: Russia, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, Argentina, England
Pot 2: Colombia, Belgium, Peru, Uruguay, Switzerland, Croatia, Mexico, Poland.
Pot 3: Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, Iran, Serbia, Senegal, Japan, Costa Rica.
Pot 4: Australia, South Korea, Nigeria, Morocco, Panama, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia.
And for comparison, here are the actual World Cup Draw pots. Some big differences stand out.
England and Spain are underrated, Belgium and Poland overrated
Poland got a top seed for the real World Cup draw, but ELO only ranks them as the 15th best qualifier.
Conversely, Spain is a Pot 2 team in real life, but ELO thinks they’re the third best team in the world. Belgium and England also swap pots if ELO is used to rank teams, which English fans will likely find outrageous.
Don’t sleep on Asia’s best
You probably haven’t heard much hype for Japan or Iran, but ELO likes them quite a bit more than FIFA. Whichever groups they get drawn into in December are unlikely to be considered the “Group of Death,” but perhaps they should be.
What are the best possible groups in the World Cup?
It’s fun to consider what the draw might look like with good rankings, but it’s probably even more fun to use ELO to look at the best possible real life draw scenarios.
The group with the highest possible ELO rating is: Brazil, Spain, Iran and Serbia. But some other scenarios are even juicier.
There’s also a great way to get two almost equally nasty groups of death. Brazil, Spain, Sweden and Japan could be in one group, while Germany, Colombia, Iran and Serbia could make up another. Argentina, England, Denmark and Australia would make up the next strongest possible group in that scenario, leaving us with three groups where every game is must-watch.
What’s the weakest possible group?
Unsurprisingly, all of the weakest possible groups feature Russia. The hosts’ ELO rank of 45 means they’re probably better than FIFA’s ranking of 65 suggests, but they’re only ahead of four other teams. They also all feature Saudi Arabia, the lowest-rated team in the World Cup.
Russia, Mexico, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia would make up the worst possible group, according to ELO. While El Tri supporters might not be a fan of that disrespect, they’ll certainly be pleased if that group pops up during the draw on December 1.
International Football
Grudgingly, Eto’o accepts new Cameroon coach Brys, but fails to attend ceremony
Cameroon’s new coach Marc Brys penned a contract on Monday but the Belgian’s appointment by the government remains contentious as the football federation did not attend the signing ceremony.
Brys has been handed a 2-1/2-year contract by Cameroon’s sports ministry but the federation (FECAFOOT) was conspicuous by its absence at the event in Yaounde.
Last week, FECAFOOT criticised the unilateral decision of sports minister Narcisse Mouelle Kombito to appoint the 61-year-old Brys, who has no prior experience as a national team coach and has not previously worked on the African continent.
FECAFOOT president Samuel Eto’o issued a statement on Monday, excusing himself from the unveiling event.
“We thank you for inviting us to the ceremony. Following this, we inform you of the fact that we received the letter two hours before the said ceremony,” wrote Eto’o.
“Unfortunately, we are busy organising the funeral of our late Dad, and for this reason we will not be able to attend presence at the ceremony.”
His father’s funeral is to be held at the weekend.
Eto’o balked at Brys’ appointment and is now in a deepening standoff with the minister.
In Cameroon, the government has long paid the salary of the national team coach and therefore held powerful sway over FECAFOOT’s affairs, even if such state interference is frowned upon by world football’s governing body FIFA.
Any heightened dispute risks a potential ban from international competition for Cameroon, one of the heavyweights of African football.
FECAFOOT held an emergency meeting on Saturday and asked Eto’o to propose an alternative coach for the national team.
Earlier on the weekend, the minister had defended the appointment, saying he had acted in accordance with national and international regulations.
In a letter to FECAFOOT, Kombi said his ministry’s appointment of coaching staff “in no way affects the autonomy of FECAFOOT and does not violate any of the ‘supranational regulations”.
He said FECAFOOT had suggested three candidates to the ministry but their salary demands ranged between 1.5 million euros and 2.5 million euros ($1.63 million and $2.71 million) per year.
“These are excessive amounts never paid to any coach in the history of the Indomitable Lions,” Kombi said.
-Reuters
Cameroon’s football federation (FECAFOOT) held an emergency meeting on Saturday and asked its president to propose an alternative coach for the national team, deepening a standoff with the sports ministry.
FECAFOOT on Wednesday accused the ministry of unilaterally appointing Belgian Marc Brys as coach and other staff to manage the Indomitable Lions, who are five-times African champions.
The dispute risks a potential ban from international competition as world soccer’s governing body FIFA has strict rules against government interference in national federations.
In a statement, FECAFOOT said its emergency committee had met on Saturday and unanimously confirmed that the federation had not been involved in the appointments in alleged contravention of regulations.
As a result, it asked its president Samuel Eto’o to propose a national coach and other management staff for the national side within 72 hours.
Responding to a request for comment, a spokesperson for the ministry said the result of the FECAFOOT meeting was “an appeal. It is not yet a decision.”
On Friday, Sports Minister Narcisse Mouelle Kombi wrote to FECAFOOT to defend the coaching appointments, which he said were in accordance with national and international rules.
In a letter seen by Reuters, Kombi said the ministry’s move “in no way affects the autonomy of FECAFOOT and does not violate any of the ‘supranational regulations’.”
A spokesperson for the ministry confirmed the authenticity of the letter.
Kombi’s letter also said the salaries requested by three candidates earlier proposed by the federation for the position of coach ranged between 1.5 million euros ($1.6 million) and 2.5 million euros per year.
“These are excessive amounts never paid to any coach in the history of the Indomitable Lions,” Kombi said.
FECAFOOT did not respond to a request for comment on the letter.
-Reuters
RELATED STORIES:
BREAKING! Turmoil in Cameroon federation over naming of new national coach Brys. https://www.sportsvillagesquare.com/2024/04/03/breaking-turmoil-in-cameroon-federation-over-naming-of-new-national-coach-brys/
Soccer Cameroon appoint Brys as new head coach https://www.sportsvillagesquare.com/2024/04/03/soccer-cameroon-appoint-brys-as-new-head-coach/
International Football
National team and club-mate Owolabi commiserates with grief-stricken Odegbami –
Powerful left-wing back in his playing days, Felix Owolabi has expressed great grief over the loss of a son of former teammate, Segun Odegbami.
Both Felix Owolabi and Odegbami share common traits as the earliest tertiary institution footballers featuring for clubs and the national team.
While Odegbami was a mechanical engineering student at The Ibadan Polytechnic, Owolabi was an undergraduate at the University of Lagos.
Both were players of the then rampaging IICC Shooting Stars and the Africa Cup of Nations winning team of 1980. The crucial goals that won the cup for Nigeria were scored by the duo.
While Owolabi’s goal against Morocco sent Nigeria to the Africa Cup of Nations final match for the first time, Odegbami’s two goals in the final against Algeria put a stamp of definity to Nigeria’s victory before another club-mate Muda Lawal put in the third.
“We have come a long way”, remarked Owolabi in a message to the Sports Village Square Thursday morning.
“I have just arrived from Morocco on a national assignment trying to adjust and deal with the extreme and gruelling hot weather here in Nigeria when I got the sad news of the sudden death of the son of my dear brother and senior colleague Dr Olusegun Odegbami.
“Hearing the death of Oluwagbeminiyi Omo Odegbami, I paused for a moment and did not know what to say.
“All the media both print and electronics carried it as a breaking news.
“And that was when it dawned on me that I had to call ‘Big Sheg’ as he is fondly called by me.
“His authoritative confirmation about it dealt a blow on me and put me total darkness.What would have happened to this our vibrant and such an enterprising Oluwagbeminiyi?
“Why would death be so so wicked to suddenly take this gentleman away from us without notice. Going on a journey that he will need not to look at anybody, an eternal journey till Christ come.
“My heart and that of my entire family are with you and the rest of the family”, remarked Owolabi.
“It is well. I pray that God grant him eternal rest. I pray also that the almighty God grant you the fortitude to bear the irreparable loss. Today the death of Oluwagbeminiyi has made me to believe and conclude that death is real and it is universal
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Apart from Okwaraji, Nigeria’s Other Field-Related Obituaries
Grudgingly, Eto’o accepts new Cameroon coach Brys, but fails to attend ceremony
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