BY KUNLE SOLAJA.

A big surprise is in the offing when FIFA releases this month’s ranking next week Thursday.

Playing against and heavily defeating the fourth ranked football team in the world may not have significantly impacted on Nigeria’s FIFA ranking.

In the October ranking, Nigeria had 721 points and had since played two matches, drawing 1-1 away with Algeria and beating former World Cup holders, Argentina 4-2 earlier this week in Russia.

Many would have expected Nigeria’s point-haul to rise and consequently lifting the country higher from the current 41^st position, but the reverse appears to be case when the November ranking will be released on November 23.

Sports Village Square’ s check at the ranking prognosis shows that Nigeria has lost weight, dropping from 721 points to 671 despite not losing any match since the last ranking and also beating a far higher ranked Argentina.

The South Americans are currently fourth ranked in the world and have 1445 points.

Expectedly, the defeat by Nigeria on Tuesday affected Argentina’s point haul for November which fall slightly to 1348 when compared to the points their conquerors, the Super Eagles have lost.

Cameroon, currently ranked next to Nigeria at 42^nd position will overtake the Super Eagles when the November rankings are released. Cameroon last weekend drew 2-2 with lower ranked Zambia but will have 696 points as against 671 that Nigeria will get.

Most football analysts have often kicked against the FIFA ranking claiming that it is disproportional and does not often represent the relative strength of teams.

Owing to this, alternative rankings by football statisticians, such as that of World Football Elo Ratings and the rec.sport.soccer Statistics Foundation rankings, have emerged.

According to an Associated Press (AP) report in June 2006 when the US team was ranked fourth in the world in April 2006, even their players were shocked and felt flattered! That was even after they were beaten 4-1 by Germany.

The ranking started in December 1992 and had been subject of intense debate. On at least two instances, FIFA has had to adjust the yardsticks.

According to FIFA’s explanations, the basic logic of the “calculation is simple: any team that does well in world football wins points which enable it to climb the world ranking.

“ A team’s total number of points over a four-year period is determined by adding the average number of points gained from matches during the past 12 months and the average number of points gained from matches older than 12 months (depreciates yearly)”.

Therefore, calculation for a single match is determined by four factors – result, importance of the match, strength of the opposing team in ranking and geographical location (confederation). On location, teams in confederations like UEFA and Conmebol enjoy higher rating on account that they are stronger.

So on account of these, the factors are brought together in the following formula to ascertain points per match:

P (point) =M (result) x I (importance of the match) x T (strength of opponent) x C (confederation).

So, “the number of points that can be won in a match depends on the following factors:

• Was the match won or drawn? (M)
• How important was the match (ranging from a friendly match to a FIFA World Cup match)? (I) How strong was the opposing team in terms of ranking position and the confederation to which they belong? (T and C)

“These factors are brought together in the following formula to ascertain the total number of points (P):   P = M x I x T x C”

“The following criteria apply to the calculation of points:

M: Points for match result

Teams gain 3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat.

‘In a penalty shoot-out, the winning team gains 2 points and the losing team gains 1 point.

“I: Importance of match – “Friendly match (including small competitions): I = 1.0. FIFA World Cup qualifier or confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5

“Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0

FIFA World Cup final competition: I = 4.0

“T: Strength of opposing team. The strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 – the ranking position of the opponents.

“As an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50.

“The ranking position is taken from the opponents’ ranking in the most recently published FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.

“C: Strength of confederation

“When calculating matches between teams from different confederations, the mean value of the confederations to which the two competing teams belong is used.

“The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the number of victories by that confederation at the last three FIFA World Cup competitions   “Their values are as follows:

• CONMEBOL 1.00
• UEFA 0.99
• AFC/CAF/OFC/CONCACAF 0.85